Economists are predicting an onset of recession next year, including a decline in the GDP, a falling stock market, and a weak job market. To top it all we are seeing a decline in consumer spending. Most of the country’s high-profile companies are seeing layoffs and hiring freezes

However the job market, typically an indicator of recession, remains incredibly strong. There are 11.3 million job openings in the U.S., translating into two jobs for every job seeker. As of May, 4.3 million people quit their jobs, close to the record set late last year. This is not what you expect in a recession where businesses freeze hiring and reduce workforces. During these trying times, employers have been increasing wages, adding perks, and keeping layoffs low. If a recession is approaching, strangely, employment has not declined.

Why are there so many Job Openings when there is a Recession threat?

As a result of Great Resignation, there are still many openings partly due to the struggle of employers to stay fully staffed. In the last year, it has been very difficult for employers across industries, ages, and levels to hire and retain employees. Employers also don’t want to repeat what happened during the pandemic: laying off thousands and then struggling to hire them back. In the recent past, people have been seeking less tangible stuff out of their jobs, such as work-life balance and meaning. This has led to higher levels of job quits, than what is expected from worker scarcity.

How can you land a better salary with hiring shortfalls?

Aside from hiring, employers are offering higher wages, signing, and retention bonuses. Since the opportunity cost of not filling the jobs is so high, employers are willing to offer more money for skilled candidates. The importance of health benefits, retirement savings, leave, and flexibility has increased more than ever. There is no better time than now to experiment with better pay and other benefits from your current employer or a new one.

Is it a good idea to resign now?

In general, it is not a bad time to look for new opportunities. The job market is very active right now and companies are happy to hire. But you have to take into account the amount of risk you can take. It is anticipated that half of U.S. employers will increase employment in the third quarter and only 12 percent would decrease it. While most executives expect a recession by the end of 2023, they also rank attracting and retaining talent as their top growth strategy.

It is very difficult to define what is normal. Inflation is at an all-time high, the demand hasn’t decreased at the same rate. This means that the company needn’t focus primarily on laying off workers. The problem will arise when there is a fall in demand, and one can not support such an infrastructure.

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